How Shifting Consumer Demand Patterns are Contributing to High Egg Prices
Avian influenza may be the biggest factor driving egg prices higher, but rising consumption and demand for specialty eggs are also playing role
DENVER (February 6, 2025)—U.S. consumers are facing a prolonged period of higher egg prices that will likely extend through the Easter holiday and well into 2025. Rising egg prices and increased volatility in the market are largely attributable to supply challenges brought on by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. Since the current outbreak began impacting U.S. poultry farms in 2022, nearly 100 million table egg laying hens have been affected.
However, HPAI is not the only factor contributing to the supply and demand imbalance driving egg prices higher. Consumer demand for eggs has skyrocketed in recent years, with per capita consumption growing 20% from 2016-2019. Demand has also shifted away from conventional eggs as more consumers are choosing cage-free and other types of specialty eggs – further complicating the supply challenges. As well, nine states have enacted laws that require eggs sold in their states to be from cage-free hens.
According to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, the increase in overall demand for eggs, combined with the growing preference for specialty eggs, is exacerbating the impact of tight supplies precipitated by HPAI. The confluence of all three factors is prolonging the timeline for bringing egg supply and demand into closer alignment. Until then, retail egg prices will remain elevated.
“Egg demand was relatively stable in the early 2000s and seasonality played a much bigger role in peak demand periods than it does today,” said Brian Earnest, lead animal protein economist with CoBank. “While seasonality remains an influencing factor, egg use has grown dramatically over the last 20 years. “Eggs have become a staple item for innovation in quick-service restaurant entrees, and marketing trends like the emergence of all-day breakfast have significantly boosted egg demand.”
Rising demand for cage-free eggs has also outpaced supply in recent years. Currently, more than 120 million or roughly 40% of the table egg layers in U.S. commercial flocks are housed in cage-free production systems. That compares with just 30 million layers housed in cage-free systems in 2015. While the growth in supply of cage-free eggs has been substantial, more will be needed to adequately meet demand projections.
Total egg laying hen inventories, including conventionally raised hens, have not been substantially depleted from where they were at the beginning of the HPAI outbreak. Commercial operators who have been impacted have moved swiftly to repopulate hens. Through January 2025, the U.S. egg industry has 8% fewer egg-laying hens than it did two years ago. But HPAI has evolved to become a persistent, year-round threat to production.
“The last widespread outbreak of HPAI in 2015 was largely seasonal with most cases occurring during the winter and spring migration periods for wild birds,” said Earnest. “That seasonality appears to be gone. During the current outbreak, HPAI has been detected in birds or other species nearly every month since the outbreak began in February 2022.”
Read the report, Surging Egg Prices are Being Driven by More than Bird Flu.
About CoBank
CoBank is a cooperative bank serving vital industries across rural America. The bank provides loans, leases, export financing and other financial services to agribusinesses and rural power, water and communications providers in all 50 states. The bank also provides wholesale loans and other financial services to affiliated Farm Credit associations serving more than 77,000 farmers, ranchers and other rural borrowers in 23 states around the country.
CoBank is a member of the Farm Credit System, a nationwide network of banks and retail lending associations chartered to support the borrowing needs of U.S. agriculture, rural infrastructure and rural communities. Headquartered outside Denver, Colorado, CoBank serves customers from regional banking centers across the U.S. and also maintains an international representative office in Singapore.
